Belgium's Political Divide: Fact or Fiction?

Unveiling the Asymmetrical Cleavages

Contrary to popular belief, the Flemish and Francophone regions of Belgium may not be as politically distinct as previously assumed. Research has uncovered evidence suggesting a deviation from this traditional view.

In the past, Western European party systems were shaped by "sticky political divides" known as cleavages. These cleavages emerged from social conflicts that gave birth to stable relationships between parties and voters.

The Evolution of Cleavages

However, from the 1970s onward, party systems began to transform. Factors such as economic growth, education, and globalization led to a shift in political bonds based on strong collective identities.

At the same time, a new cultural cleavage emerged, centered around differences in values and priorities between those who embraced "universalism" and those who preferred "particularism," with universalists viewing things as a collective whole, while particularists prioritized individuality and specific groups. This cleavage has fueled the rise of green and far-right parties.

Belgium's Unique Situation

Belgium has been at the forefront of this evolution. The Dutch-speaking Flemish region witnessed the early success of the green Agalev and the far-right Vlaams Blok. However, in the French-speaking Francophone region, the success of far-right parties has been limited.

This raises the question: has the new cultural cleavage fully materialized in both parts of Belgium?

Comparative Analysis

Research has compared the ideological structures of Flemish and Francophone electorates, revealing two key dimensions across both regions: cultural and economic. The cultural dimension involves issues such as immigration, European integration, and social welfare. The economic dimension encompasses matters like social benefits and taxation.

"The correlations between the dimensions in both regions are high," the study found, indicating that cleavages likely revolve around similar issues. However, further analysis revealed some differences.

Divergence in Polarization

Flemish voters were found to be more polarized around cultural attitudes, while Francophones displayed less division on economic issues. Additionally, Francophones tended to be economically more left-wing, suggesting a possible welfare consensus that hinders the breakthrough of the far right.

Agency and Social Structure

Research also examined the influence of social structure and voting behavior on cleavages. Statistical tests identified education, income, and sub-national identity as significant characteristics, with the linguistic divide carrying more weight in Flanders.

Furthermore, working-class voters were positioned closer to social-democratic electorates in Francophone Belgium, indicating a different alignment of structural factors.

Francophone Cultural Cleavage

Despite the limited success of far-right parties in Francophone Belgium, research suggests that a cultural cleavage is apparent in the region. However, class issues, reinforced by the social insurance agenda of the social-democratic PS, appear to have overshadowed this divide and prevented its full mobilization.

Conclusion: Beyond Division

This research challenges the notion of separate political worlds in Flanders and Francophone Belgium. Instead, the asymmetry in the Belgian political space is attributed to distinct party strategies and the welfare consensus among Francophone voters.

"The asymmetry in the Belgian political space is the product of different party strategies and the welfare consensus espoused by Francophone voters," the study concludes.